Fire AetherwingTier 2
at Ascent Las Vegas
decks
11
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
85
42-43-0
overall winrate
49.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1310
· median 1239
· range 1168–1597
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1218
Q3 1417
1694
18% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
36% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 44.9% | -3.2 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 7 | 1-6-0 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 29.0% | -10.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.5% | 11 | 2-9-0 | 18.2% | 26.7% | 25.0% | -10.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.2% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -7.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.9% | +27.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 73.2% | +14.8 |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 45.2% | -3.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 68.3% | +9.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 76.9% | +17.2 |
| Water Fractal | 3.4% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 55.5% | +3.2 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 45.2% | -3.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 59.9% | +5.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.1% | +16.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.5% | +6.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.1 |
| Fire Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Ranger Boots, Under Fire, Aetherwing's Ward.
Ranger Boots
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Under Fire
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Aetherwing's Ward
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranger Boots | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Under Fire | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Singeing Leap | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Evasive Positioning | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Quickstep Treads | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Flickering Cinder | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Ranger Strides | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetherwing's Ward | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Disenchant | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ashfletched Bowman | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Piercing Aetherfuel | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Burning Aethercharge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Flash Grenade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Nimble Longbowman | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignition Draw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gunsmith's Arsenal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Contraband Revolver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ashwound Shot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |